Volumes of Objects in the Market

Unlike the financial market there is no known single source of information available to browsers in the market. The majority of those active within the second hand goods market deliver messages of being the most comprehensive. On investigation the volume of objects traded could be in excess of 10 million per annum [vi] .  The three largest information providers Antiques Trade Gazette website, eBay and Invaluable provide a return for the number of objects placed in auction. Go Antiques site offer 110,095 Antique objects from North American and European dealers [40] . At first sight those with the largest count of lots or objects for sale would assume to have the most coverage.

The above figures show the aforementioned service providers and the available information on there respective websites as of the 8 May 2004 at 10:50 am. Invaluable displaying 90,000 more than any other on a global basis and almost matching eBay’s UK antique section. Invaluable Group UK figures at 39,174 on a random sample included those from the three major London names along with their satellite offices within the UK and Northern Ireland. Removing these from the total reduces their figure to 13,892. Whilst the Antique Trade Gazette only holds lots for Sotheby’s Olympia reducing their available data to 16,481 [41] . Both companies on average have maintained a similar amount of data for the last three months. The market share of the three major London names [42] has increased from 28 percent in 1995 in excess of 60 per-cent at this time.

Based on the information given by the DTI and Department of Heritage [43] it shows that the auction market [44] contributes 25 percent of the second hand portable goods. The average number of objects in one lot is 3.76 [45] . The combined trade of auction houses, dealers and over activities, places approximately15 million objects each year [46] onto the market. Realised and hammer prices gathered show that the average number of lots sold has increased from 51 per-cent [47] in 1994 to around 64 per-cent [48] in 2002 [49] . Catalogue images have increased from 12 per-cent [50] in 1995 to 30 per-cent for Invaluable. No comparison for the same period for the Antique Trade Gazette with 47 per-cent of their lots having related images at sample date.

The DTI and Department of National Heritage state that 50% of the markets trade is between dealers. It did not clarify how many of these objects were sold to the end user [51] . The assumption is that 7.5 million lots are inter-trade activities, a further 1.75 million [52] may be offered on eBay’s antique section. This would reduce the total by 6.5 million and delivering 7.2 unique million objects onto the market each year [53] .

Antique Fairs

The rapid growth in antique fairs in the mid nineties has now slumped, with 25 percent less fairs being held year on year. [54] The general data about these fairs such as attendee’s, stallholders and quantity of stock is more elusive than that of the auction market. Figure can only be calculated by taking averages of those that maintain statistical information. From this approximately 10,000 dealers are trading to around 50,000 potential buyers [vii] . However, there has been little effect on the volume of objects traded as auctioneers [55] have commented about the increase in lower value objects.

Dealers Stock

Dealers stock traded from premises or at fairs [viii] cannot be measured from a central point. The figures from GoAntiques and eBay provide little knowledge, without close inspection, of the detail to the physical location of the stock or dealer. In addition, dealers belong to one or more associations and will place stock on a number of web sites to achieve the best price. This leaves no alternative but to rely on information gleaned from VAT returns and research performed by government bodies [56] .

Price Books and Other On-line price data

The previous information relates to forthcoming auction sales (live) data. In addition, the same pre-sale provider’s information with realised prices supplemented by Art Price Index [57] and Art Sales Index [58] for flat art and sculpture. [59]   A number of publications provide second hand portable goods price data.

The figures from the on-line providers are subject to artistic licence and may or may not be precise [60] . The figure of 6.5 million realised prices on Invaluables site does not provide the quantity of related images [61] . The Antiques Trade Gazette has 261,875 lots of which 109,492 are illustrated. [62] The discussion however excludes the ‘art appreciation’ or the current vogue of genre that produces huge fluctuations within this section of the market [63] .

The lack of information relating to the price of second hand goods created the grounding for the well-known Millers Annual Price Guide now in its 25^th year. This publication resides with a multitude of focussed publications. [ix]

Printed matter would become too expensive should all the available data from the market be reproduced. [64] The printed extracts contribution to the transparency only allows what the editor deems as important or relevant. Miller’s Antiques Price Guide uses between 9,000 and 15,000 illustrations to publish their 7-8,000 objects in the annual price guide. These published illustrations have been checked by a list of numerous experts within the related field [65] before publication. The format of Miller’s is followed by Judith Miller’s publication Antiques Price Guide containing 8,500 images under DK Publishing when her agreement expired with Octopus Publishing group [66] . Although the detail differs, the concept and volumes are the same, with both selecting from a mixture of dealer and auction room data. The volume of around 9,000 objects offers no concept against 3 million auction objects or in excess of 10 million objects on the market in one year, these publications related to less than one percent of the trading market. Both D K and Octopus publish Collectors Price guides with similar volumes to their respective Antique Guides. These cater for the car boot and fair market tending to focus on the sub £100 market [67] . The combination allowing for duplicates creates a resource of around 30,000 objects to view. Miller’s have specialised in producing sub sets of their data in an array of books no doubt D K using the ‘Miller’ name will follow suite.

In addition, to household brands other publications in the antiques and collectables market provide detailed information about a manufacturer or smaller market and include Pot lids, Goss and Crested china and targeted price guides for model soldiers, Dinky and Corgi toys. An example of the objects traded in volume show that a simple comparison without the need for complex research lays in contemporary collecting. The famous eBay Beanie Babies [68] provides an example of a manufactured market [69] . However, second hand goods of more than 30 years of age, before officially becoming an antique (aged 50,100 or 250 years old [70] ) contain their own identification such as stamps, coins, books and postcards, provide the background for simple transactions. An image or the descriptive text is a duplicate of the detail on the object, thus providing its own provenance and ratification of being the genuine article. A sub division of these objects contain medical, nautical and scientific instruments as the majority have a maker’s name, date of creation and often a pattern or serial number that can easily be compared to similar articles. Mechanical objects are also a prime candidate such as musical boxes, clocks and watches [71] .

The High street shops stock a number of fortnightly and monthly specialist magazines further supplement the circulations desire for price information. Most include between one and five pages per edition with 100 to 400 prices related to their target audience.  The weekly edition of the Antiques Trade Gazette [72] provides between two and five [73] pages that discuss the previous weeks trading and prices.

Further price information is available from television programmes, where a small quantity of information is aired for a large number of viewers. The average Antique Roadshow programme shows between eighteen and twenty-two objects [74] . Other programme variations all deliver a similar amount or less and all have related websites. The Antique Roadshow [75] has its own online price guide with 5,000 objects illustrated and priced.

The Quality of price data

The above is targeted for the volume market and high street book retailers [76] who tend not to stock the specialist books such as those published by Antique Collectors club. British Antique Furniture – Price Guide and Reasons for Values that provides an index and information about the piece. The index is held in high regard by the trading industry and is often quoted by consumer magazines and the press.

‘All the indices are, however, based on prices of fairly straightforward, good pieces generally available in shops and fairs as well as at auction, market and other sources. They do not include highly provenanced, top quality, specialist designer or country-house prices which, would exceed the prices of this indexed furniture.’ [77]

The index is based on reasonable pieces and thus not subject to the fluctuations at the upper end of the market.

Although most auctioneers, dealers and loss adjusters implied that Miller’s Price guide ‘is a book we don’t use’ [78] visits to the premises often find the latest copy on the reference shelf somewhere.  Miller’s is published by Octopus; each image is subjected to having a relevant expert review the data and price before submission into the guide. [79] In the section of quality information the assumption that all the objects included on the Roadshow online price guide have been researched and handled by an expert.

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