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| Art | Furniture | Art & Antique Market | Law Enforcement | Insuance Industry | Resume |
The assignment discusses the market in relation to the
British artist Lowry, Laurence Stephen. The
paper covers a number of aspects about his life and the way in which his death
may have affected the price of paintings executed by him. Due to the semi unique
position of works being sold during his life and the apparent volumes produced
the document focuses on oil paintings. The artists unique style has been placed
in various genres therefore comparisons will cover similar artists of the time.
In addition a number of the macro effects and an overview of the art market in
recent years. The lack of available data of works offered for sale
limits the ability to research truthful supply and demand information,
restricting the capacity to provide qualitative information on the market
development for the artist works.
Artist background
As the intention of the document is to discuss the market in relation to works sold rather than a chronology of his life, however a number of events may have affected his interaction with the art market to this end a chronology from the recently open Lowry museum[i] and multi purpose centre is included in the endnotes of the document.
The artist
through presenting himself as a fulltime artesian[1]
in fact was employed as a rent collector and clerk at the Pall
Mall Property Co Ltd, Manchester until he retried in 1952 after 42
years of service. This is part of his
own perception to the outside world, the employers Victorian in evicts were
happy to allow Lowry to take time out for an array of events such as gallery
visits, trips to London and presentations[2]. Lowry never left the shores of the UK though
close friends offered many opportunities to do so this appears to be another
part of his branding[3].
The style of work often cast doubt on his ability to paint in a classical
manner and his lack of training, he took evening classes in drawing and
painting 1905-6 and in 1915 the documentary proof is on display in the Lowry’s’
museum display of his classical type drawings. Lowry himself appreciated the
Pre-Raphaelites “Lowry was perhaps surprisingly, a great admirer of the
Pre-Raphaelites, he owned works by Rossetti and Ford Madox Brown, and works by
Lucien Freud.”[4][ii]
This unique style of Lowry is linked with industrial
landscapes[5]
as his only subject matter[6]
a review of works sold since 1968 from the Art Sales Index show a different
primary subject[7] for oil
paintings.
|
Subject |
Lots Sold |
|
Street
Scene |
190 |
|
Portrait
sat or standing |
86 |
|
Family
or Group |
75 |
|
Industrial |
71 |
|
Non
Industrial scene |
67 |
|
Canal
Harbour and River |
66 |
|
Beach
or Holiday |
65 |
|
Children |
45 |
|
People
with an animal(s) |
21 |
|
Seascapes |
20 |
|
Sports
Meeting |
11 |
|
Scene |
11 |
|
Animal/Birds |
10 |
|
Interior
Scene |
4 |
The subject table[8]
shows a higher count of street scenes not know to be industrial (190) more than
any other topic, the top three topics are people in some form of activity with
perhaps a background of shops, buildings or houses. It could be disputed that
the Canal, Harbour and River (66) of commercial activities should be combined
with the Industrial scenes (71) making a total of 137 would still place it
below scenes of people combined including portraits[9]
at 407[10].
Interestingly the number of number of non-industrial scenes (67) is on a par in
volume to those grouped as industrial even without the addition of ‘scene’ (11)
and ‘seascapes’ (20). No matter the subject or group Lowry painted in what
appears to be a self promoted naive or primitive style. This in a similar vein
to Rousseau’s town scenes and portraits and maybe a trait of money collectors
portraying a child’s view!
“Childhood
has its own way of seeing, thinking, and feeling, and nothing is more foolish
than to try and substitute ours for theirs.” – Rousseau[11]
Quote from Lowry site or somewhere
about child like painting
Lowry experimented in his early years but later
found his quintessential trademark. “Bernard Taylor made the suggestion that
helped Lowry to get into his painting the stark figures and the pallor of the
industrial sky that he wanted. Taylor suggested he painted on a pure white
background. Lowry experimented with layers of white paint on boards, leaving
them for a time so the surface went creamy.”[12]
“… I would go and see if they let me have some flake-white. This was the
only colour with which he always thoroughly coated his canvases as a base for
the painting”[13]
The reported solitary nature and low level of self-publicity
created a number of questions to his sexuality, his intentions towards children
and the few relationships he had. Quoted to have said, "Had I not been
lonely none of my works would have happened".[14]
Reflected in the huge reported number of works produced and quote to be around
8-9,000 pieces[15] of which
1,000 are oil paintings, other information lowers the total to around 2,000
pieces. The Lowry’[16]
reports 350[17] mixed
paintings (100) and drawings (250). The Art Sales Index search reported 742
paintings found with 294 duplicates yielding a total of 557 unique works.
Combined with the ‘Lowry’ collection (or on loan to) leaves a balance of 34
percent of estimated works in oil unknown to the market or their whereabouts.
Logistical information
There are two main factors that are unusual. Lowry died in
1976 the art market tends to purchase works from artist that have died perhaps
for stability. This splits the data into two sets pre and post death prices. In
addition a dedicated museum of national standing was opened in 2000 and may be
seen as an authority on the subject of Lowry’s.
Graph 1 (Art Sales Index[18])
Graph 1[19]
shows a direct comparison between the quantities of work sold to the cumulative
total of hammer prices. The link between rise in volume and lower exchange of
the dollar to the pound shows a reflection in the locality buying trends 98.6%
of Lowry’s have been brought in the UK (see graph 3) when over laying the graph
2 with graph 1. As the dollar drops the volume of paintings sold increase,
showing direct collation between the art market and the money markets.
Graph 2 (Dollar/Sterling exchange rates[20])
Graph 3[21]
(Where Lowry was sold at auction)
The majority of Lowry paintings have been sold at auction
within the UK (98.6 percent) and mainly at the major London salerooms (97.4
percent). The first overseas auction of a Lowry was in 1996 at Weschler,
Washington USA. An article in the Antique Trade Gazette in 99 could imply that
the paintings from the Australian sale of 1998 returned to the UK.[22]
Graph 4. (Average prices annually with black trend line)
The graph (4) shows the average value of paintings with a slight reverse of the downward trend in 88 and produces a sharp rise from 1998 some twenty years after the artist died. This repeats the 76-78 which may have been affected by the artist death, again a decade later in 97-98 a drop showing a clear ten year cycle. The black trend line offers a steady return on investment from the early years but doubling from 1980 to 1990 and again in 2003. Prior to 1967 only 4 paintings where or below, even so the average unit price doubles from the 60’s to the 70’s.
Table 2 provides a ratio of return on the previous decade; the period to buy was the 80’s selling in the 90’s for a maximum return on investment. The table ratifies the power trend line calculated in Excel with the exception of the current decade.
Table
2 (Indexed link prices using RPI/CPI)
|
Decade Sold |
Value indexed linked |
Ratio against previous decade |
|
2000’s |
£83,584.08 |
1.2 |
|
1990’s |
£68,900.65 |
4.1 |
|
1980’s |
£16,864.55 |
2.9 |
|
1970’s |
£8,801.60 |
2.3 |
Table 3 (Volumes sold at auction and held in Public collections[23])
|
Decade |
Auction Sales (oils) |
Public Collections |
|
||
|
Created |
Count |
Percentage |
Count |
Percentage |
|
|
Unknown |
58 |
7.8% |
0 |
0.0% |
|
|
1900 |
0 |
0.0% |
8 |
1.9% |
|
|
1910 |
11 |
1.5% |
37 |
8.6% |
|
|
1920 |
26 |
3.5% |
129 |
30.0% |
|
|
1930 |
46 |
6.2% |
42 |
9.8% |
|
|
1940 |
142 |
19.2% |
41 |
9.5% |
|
|
1950 |
205 |
27.7% |
54 |
12.6% |
|
|
1960 |
250 |
33.8% |
93 |
21.6% |
|
|
1970 |
2 |
0.3% |
26 |
6.0% |
|
Table 3 provides the statistics that the majority of works
sold are between 1930 and 1960 inclusive. Various press articles imply the early
works from Lowry’s and that of his last decade were past onto the Salford
museum then later moved to the Lowry. Without the knowledge of the works
presented for sale but not sold, a theory could be presented that there was a
lack of demand for these works and various museums purchased the objects at low
value or where presented to them from the owners.
Table 4 (Paintings sold by decade created)
|
Executed |
Total Hammer |
Average Hammer |
Minimum Hammer |
Maximum price |
|
Unknown |
£603,439.00 |
£10,404.12 |
£280.00 |
£100,000.00 |
|
1910 |
£78,700.00 |
£6,558.33 |
£350.00 |
£21,000.00 |
|
1920 |
£794,610.00 |
£30,561.92 |
£360.00 |
£235,000.00 |
|
1930 |
£2,534,915.00 |
£55,106.85 |
£300.00 |
£450,000.00 |
|
1940 |
£4,993,085.00 |
£35,162.57 |
£180.00 |
£350,000.00 |
|
1950 |
£9,021,199.00 |
£44,005.85 |
£280.00 |
£1,750,000.00 |
|
1960 |
£5,630,444.00 |
£22,521.78 |
£320.00 |
£230,000.00 |
|
1970 |
£48,500.00 |
£16,166.67 |
£8,500.00 |
£28,000.00 |
Table 4 confirms the auction markets preference in works
created between1930s-1950s as seen in the average price and the maximum for the
decade. Though the average for works
from 1960s is below that of 1930s the cumulative total provides positive
market. The largest volume of works sold[24]
is for those of the 60s after Lowry’s retirement and the change from a critic’s
view of a Sunday painter to a professional artist.
Graph 5
The
original graph (5) downloaded form the ASI website, displays the volume and
cumulative totals for works sold created by 20th century artist.
Graph 6 combined this data with that of Lowry oil paintings (shown as the
coloured area). The graph overall shows Lowry performing in line with the rest
of the market in a plateau from 91-93 and then rising from 95 onwards. However
closer inspection of individual years such as 1994, 1996 and 2000 onwards show
an opposite of the cannon Lowry is often placed in.
Graph 6 (Data from ASI graph 5 and Lowry data extracted from
ASI)
Graph 5[25] offers a further insight with the number of lots sold, increasing the cumulative totals within the art market graph 7 shows Lowry (broken lines) and the art market for 20th century British artist. The average per lot plateaus around 5,000 pounds sterling until 96 rising to 6,600 and again in 97 to 8,500 with a two-year drop, peaking 2000 at 9,611 before returning to 6,000 and 5,128 in the following years.
Graph 7 (Average lot prices, Lowry broken lines, solid line
ASI data)
Lowry’s average prices jump from 1996 (44,317) to 97
(75,000) again in 98 to 83,000 and peaking in 99 (124,214) dropping to between 80,000 and 87,000 before reducing
to 60,000 for 2003. Though the two average prices run in parallel until 1997,
we see Lowry’s rise in 97 and peaking 99 that may have supported a unsuspected
upward trend in the art market in 97 with perhaps the expectations of the rise
continuing causing flurry of incestuous modern art market reports.
Graph 8
Academics, economist and alike often argue about the volume
or the value per square centimetre. The graph offers and insight to some of the
issues involved and the market preferences for size or its availability. The
shaded area is the average square centimetres sold each year and the average
price is shown by the line graph. The exception to the rule is in 94 when both
size and price rose, however once the price had flattened 95-96 we see a shape
rise in the price as the size of the medium reduces showing a trend towards the
smaller picture. The sudden switch in size would make calculations on per
square centimetre values are unobtainable.
Table 5 (exploring valuation on
size of painting)
|
Thames from Whitehall Court |
||||
|
Year |
Hammer |
Size sq cm |
Where |
Priced
on Sq cm (PSC) |
|
77 |
5,200 |
4050 |
Sotheby's |
7,035 |
|
87 |
22,000 |
4256 |
Sotheby's |
19,338 |
|
99 |
60,000 |
1891 |
Christie’s |
143,215 |
Table 5 shows the problems in valuing the work by the size
of the painting when the market changes preferences. Even with the subject
matter the same the only value within 10% of that estimated by PSC is that of
1987.
The subject discussion within the artist background shows
a volume preference for Street scenes as opposed to his perceived market
subject matter the following selection of graphs (9-13) display is the average
price per year for the subject.
The value of the industrial and street scenes is no surprise
with the market awareness of these subjects, both dropping in the two years.
Though all are compatible in the leading up to 1995 with the exception of
portraits. The new growing markets are shown in Family or groups paintings
along with beach scenes continuing an upward trend and the majority on a
smaller medium.
Though the discussion is about oil paintings an overall
preview of the watercolour drawing market shows a similar upward trend in
prices to that of paintings. The difference being in the 1968-1990 period when
prices and volumes increased the reverse of the oils that showed a flat period
just after his death.
Graph 14
The audience
Lowry believed his art was for the people and just months after his death a retrospective exhibition opened at the Royal Academy. It broke all attendance records for a twentieth century artist.[26] During the last three years Lowry’s have been made available at a complete cross section of prices. Oils have been sold at 5,000 with a lower average of between 15,000-20,000, watercolours though reaching nearly 96,000 in 2001 have started from as little as 337 and a hundred of those list on ASI for 2000-2003 sales below 14,000 pounds, of which 77 sold for between 3,500 and 14,000. These levels offer the British auction goer a reasonable level of purchase and are mention in the market commentary section below.
Exposure
The general publics awareness of the artist has provided
almost unheard of exposure for an artist. Stamps, pop songs, television
programmes[27] (1957) and
education have supplement the awareness and perhaps loyalty to a British artist
with a focus on the north. Even the issue over fake Lowry creates awareness of
the artist work, as did John Green from 1969, which he sold to local British
living in the Costa de Sol in the 1980’s.
Exhibitions provide one or two types of exposure and is
dependant on the preference of the museum or gallery holding the event. Between
1926 and 1930 works were displayed in Manchester, Japan and
at the Paris Salon d'Automne. Though works
regularly appeared at the “Manchester Academy of Fine Arts, and did
so annually with very few exceptions until 1972. First exhibited at the Royal
Academy of Arts.” It is repute by the Lowry museum that his first commercial
appearance was not until 1952 in his home city. “First exhibition at the Crane
Gallery, Manchester. This gallery, under the direction of Mr Andras Kalman, was
the first commercial gallery outside of London to show Lowry's work.” During in
1952 his works were displayed at the “Collection of the Museum of Modern Art,
New York”
Lowry’s writing provides us with the knowledge that he
worked to please people[28]
and the commercial aspect of art was of limited interest. The huge volume of
works created in his active period ranges between eight to ten thousand pieces,
three hundred and fifty (4%) still in his procession on his death and now forms
the major part of the Lowry gallery opened in 2000.
Market Commentary
The art market has a running commentary only when the market is apparently depressed or on the road to recovery, seldom does it comment on a flat or plateau market position. This it’s self often reports a position without comparison apart from recent sales i.e in the last six months. The investor whether it is his primary or secondary reason for purchase with a considerable retrospective research to be preformed. A task within a closed shop or a market with a lack of transparent structure leaves the purchaser with little choice to clasp at any information presented to them.
The comments in 1996 when Lowry and other British art of the
time where on the rise provide an insight to the lack of research by writers “The
£7,500 (estimate £5,000-7,000) and £6,200 (£4,500-5500) paid for a two
figure-packed street scene seemed fair enough in the current trading
conditions, given that these were relatively early drawings from the 1920s. But
what did take a number of people by surprise was the £84,000 (estimate
£1,200-1,800) given for a characterful, but relatively late, 1960s pencil study
of a family group standing on a street corner.”[29]
Graphs 5-7 show an increase in volume and average price for 20th
century British artist at this time. The sale that took place 6 months into a
year that sold the same volume as the previous one preceding 3 years of rise in
volume. Later the same year (1996) some awareness of a movement in Lowry’s
prices was acknowledged, “Last June the Lowry market leapt into a completely
new price league with the record £255,000 paid by a collector at Sotheby’s for
the 1938 oil, The cricket match. That startling price, exactly £100,000 more
than the previous record”.[30]
The article continues to express a growing market for Lowry. However the
average price of watercolour/drawings dropped the following year to £2,941 just
£400 above the 1992 levels, whilst oils rose from £31,473 in 95, £44,317 in 96
and £74,910 in 1997. The article does provide the growing access of the private
collector to auctions having left Richard Green[31]
as the under bidder on three occasions. The article also covers a rare insight
to the volume in the market for Modern British sales with an average of un-sold
lots across the big four of 34.5 percent.
Conclusion
The artist dreamscapes create in tribute to the working class of Manchester and the much-publicised style has created almost its own market. His works performing opposite that of the 20th century British artist and the French Impressionist yet achieving higher prices in more recent times. The opening of a dedicated museum in 2000 gave additional impulse to an already buoyant market. This may have supported the almost unnoticed dip in his genre in 1998-99 by achieving record prices in all media.
Since the opening of the museum the demand for his known
subjects has dwindled slightly and there is growth in his lesser known beach
and seascapes created from 1940 until his death, whilst his people paintings of
group or family scenes hold a steady pace.
B
ibliography
Gombrich E.H. Art & Illusion.
London : 2002 sixth
edition.
Sieja D. The Lowry I
Knew. London: 1983.
Thomson B. Impresionism, Orgins, Pratice, Reception. 2000: London.
Wilton A. Five Centuries of British Painting. 2001: London.